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Our friends at Calculatedriskblog.com have graphed months of supply and housing prices since 2002 and the results are striking. With only a slight lag, months of supply inversely leads leads home prices. When supply rises? Prices fall. When supply falls below six months? Prices tend to rise.

 

For details about what this means for Maui, contact us!

The NAR reported sales figures for existing homes today. Here is a key snippet:

 

Existing-home sales…were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66 million units in May, down 2.2 percent from an upwardly revised surge of 5.79 million units in April. May closings are 19.2 percent above the 4.75 million-unit level in May 2009; April sales were revised to show an 8.0 percent monthly gain…Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3..4 percent to 3.89 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.3-month supply⁴ at the current sales pace, compared with an 8.4-month supply in April. Raw unsold inventory is 1.1 percent above a year ago, but is still 14.9 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008

 

Our friends at Calculatedrisk created the above charts.

 

 

 

Further, this decision probably applies to almost every contemplated development throughout the State. Good news (sort of) for existing property owners as it keeps housing scarce, bad news for the construction and development industries.

National home prices increased in April, the second consecutive monthly increase. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 2.6 percent in April 2010 compared to April 2009. This was an improvement over March’s year-over-year price increase of 2.3 percent. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased in April by 2.2 percent; an improvement over the March non-distressed HPI which increased by 1.0 percent year-over-year. On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index increased by 0.8 percent in April 2010 compared to March 2010, which was stronger than the previous one-month increase of 0.1 percent from February to March….“The monthly increase in the HPI shows the lingering effects of the homebuyer tax credit,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “We expect that we will see home prices remain strong through early summer, but in the second half of the year we expect price growth to soften and possibly decline moderately.”

The news that prices, including distressed properties, increased for the second consecutive month is good news. Increasingly, some economists are nervous about the second half of the year.

For Maui though this is helpful. It means potential buyers will be just a little bit less nervous about their spending and investing.

 

After a near-disastrous 2009, the luxury market appears to be making a comeback, driven by growing buyer confidence, improved financing conditions and more-realistic seller pricing. Despite the housing downturn, attractively priced homes in some of the nation's most coveted neighborhoods are selling, sometimes fast and sometimes with multiple offers. Nationwide, sales of homes selling for $2 million to $5 million in the first quarter totaled 2,461, up 32% from a year before, says CoreLogic. That sales are up from last year shouldn't come as a big surprise. The shock of the financial panic in the fall of 2008 left many potential buyers too nervous to bid, and those who were willing to wade in found it hard to get financing. But a study for The Wall Street Journal by MDA DataQuick, a real-estate data provider, found that in some areas of the country, sales of homes over $2 million in the first quarter were actually on par with the levels of 2005, the peak year for existing-home sales volume nationwide.

 

A 32% increase is stunning no matter what the base is and the notion that we could be at 2005 demand levels for luxury homes? This MUST be very good news for Maui real estate!